The short answer
There is no such thing as a brand that holds value. There are references that hold value and references that do not, and they often sit inches apart in the same catalog.
A Rolex Submariner holds. A Rolex Cellini does not. A Royal Oak holds. A Code 11.59 does not. The logo on the dial tells you far less than the specific model does.
Buy the liquid hero of a brand, skip the dress or fashion outlier, and let the first owner absorb the depreciation. That is the whole game.
All images in this post are AI-generated and may not perfectly represent the actual watch references discussed. They are intended for illustration only.
Value lives in the reference, not the logo
Across the market, only about 5% of luxury watches consistently appreciate. Most depreciate from retail, then settle on a floor. The spread between the best and worst reference inside a single brand is enormous.
Steel sport models from the top houses retain roughly 85% to 120% or more of retail, while dress pieces and precious-metal versions from the same brands shed value. As one market read puts it plainly, value concentration within a brand is extreme.
So the useful question is never "does this brand hold value." It is "which reference, and at what entry price."
The 2026 buy-and-avoid map
| Brand | The buy | The one to avoid | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex | Submariner / Datejust | Cellini | Steel sport holds near or above retail; the dress line trades soft and slow |
| Omega | Speedmaster Professional | De Ville / Constellation dress | The Moonwatch has a real price floor; most other Omega sheds value |
| Tudor | Black Bay 58 | Tudor Royal | The 58 holds near retail; the Royal depreciates like a fashion watch |
| Patek Philippe | Nautilus / Aquanaut | Calatrava | Sport models trade above retail; the dress Calatrava sits at or below it |
| Audemars Piguet | Royal Oak | Code 11.59 | The Royal Oak holds 80% to 110%; the 11.59 depreciates hard |
| Breitling | Pre-owned Navitimer B01 | Any Breitling bought new | Even the best Breitlings trade below retail, so let someone else buy new |
Rolex: the Submariner over the Cellini
Rolex is the most liquid brand on earth, but that liquidity is not spread evenly.
The steel Submariner is the liquid core of the brand. The dress-oriented Cellini is the opposite.
The steel sport pieces, the Submariner and Datejust above all, sit at the top of the retention tables. The Cellini dress line is the cautionary tale: beautiful, well-made, and a weak resale prospect that trades well under its original price. Buy the tool watch, not the dress Rolex.
Omega: the Speedmaster over the dress pieces
Omega is a buy-pre-owned brand, full stop.
The Speedmaster Professional is the Omega with a genuine price floor.
A new Omega drops over 20% in the first year of ownership, and most references give up 30% to 50% off retail before stabilizing. The exception is the Speedmaster Professional, the Moonwatch, which holds best of the catalog thanks to decades of demand. The De Ville and quartz Constellation dress pieces are where the value leaks out. Let the first owner eat the drop, then buy the Speedmaster used.
Tudor: the Black Bay 58 over the Royal
Tudor is the value champion of mid-luxury, but not every Tudor behaves the same way.
The Black Bay 58 retains in the mid-80s to mid-90s percent of retail, among the best in the sub-5,000-dollar segment, and the brand index rose about 11.4% over the year to February 2026. The Tudor Royal, the brand's integrated-bracelet dress-sport line, depreciates much more like an ordinary fashion watch. Same logo, very different outcome. More on the brand at 100 is coming in a dedicated piece.
Patek Philippe: the Nautilus over the Calatrava
At the high end the same rule holds, just with more zeros.
The Aquanaut and Nautilus trade above retail. The dress Calatrava does not.
The Nautilus and Aquanaut trade well above retail and led the 2026 recovery, with Patek up about 16% on the year. The Calatrava, Patek's classic dress watch, trades at or below retail and depreciates 20% to 30%. It is a wonderful watch and a poor value play. Know which one you are buying.
Audemars Piguet: the Royal Oak over the Code 11.59
AP is almost a one-model brand on the secondary market.
The Royal Oak carries AP's resale strength. The Code 11.59 has struggled to.
The steel Royal Oak holds roughly 80% to 110% of retail. The Code 11.59, AP's round-cased line, has been a known depreciator since launch. If resale matters at all to you, the Royal Oak is the only safe AP entry. Everything else is bought for love, not liquidity.
Breitling: buy it used, never new
Breitling is the clearest "let someone else take the hit" brand on this list.
Even strong sellers like the in-house Navitimer B01 trade below retail on the secondary market, and plenty of the catalog gives up 40% or more off the sticker. That is not a knock on the watches, which are excellent. It is a buying instruction: the Navitimer is a genuinely good pre-owned pickup once the first owner has absorbed the depreciation, and a poor one at full retail.
The dealer take
Stop shopping by logo. The brand on the dial is a starting point, not an answer.
Inside almost every house there is a reference that holds and a reference that bleeds, and the gap between them is wider than the gap between brands. Buy the liquid hero, buy it pre-owned where the depreciation is already spent, and treat any resale strength as a floor rather than a forecast. For the bigger argument on why even the winners are not an investment, see our read on watches as assets in 2026.
You can browse the authenticated pre-owned collection at 5dwatches.com.