The Swiss watch industry just posted its best month of 2026. June exports jumped 11.2% in value and 11.7% in volume year over year, reaching CHF 2.4 billion across roughly 1.3 million watches, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry figures released July 21. After a brutal spring, that is the rebound the trade was waiting for. It is also only half the story.
This is the July 2026 watch market update, and the headline number hides a market pulling apart at the seams. The cheap end is on fire. The middle is soft. And the pre-owned pieces most of our buyers actually want did not get any cheaper because a good export month came out.
The images in this article were generated by AI from real reference photographs of the exact models discussed. They are illustrations, not photographs of specific watches for sale.
Rolex Cosmograph Daytona 126500LN, a steel-sport reference that anchors secondary-market sentiment.
The short answer
June was strong, the first half of 2026 was still slightly negative, and the recovery is real but narrow. Swiss exports rose 11.2% in June, yet the January to June total sits at CHF 12.8 billion, down 0.7% on last year. The United States led the June bounce. Affordable watches surged while the mid-luxury band slipped. For a pre-owned buyer, none of this lowers the price of a steel Rolex sport model, and that is the point worth understanding before you shop.
June broke the spring slump
The spring was ugly. April exports fell 16.6%, dragged down by the front-loading that happened in 2025 before U.S. duties landed. May barely moved at +0.4%. Then June printed +11.2%.
Read those three months together and the trend matters more than any single figure. The April crater was partly a mirror image of last year's tariff-driven buying rush, so the year-over-year comparison was always going to look bad. June is the first month where demand, not accounting noise, appears to be doing the lifting.
The United States did the heavy lifting
American demand led the month. U.S. imports of Swiss watches rose 12.7% in June to CHF 349 million, keeping the United States among the handful of markets that together make up more than half of Swiss exports.
That is notable given the tariff overhang. We wrote about the Swiss watch tariff cliff and the import math behind it, and June suggests American buyers kept buying through the uncertainty rather than sitting on their hands.
The market is splitting by price
Here is the split that the top-line number buries. Sorted by export price band, the cheap watches are booming and the mid-luxury watches are shrinking.
| Segment (export price) | June 2026 change |
|---|---|
| Watches CHF 200 to 500 | +54.1% |
| Watches CHF 500 to 3,000 | -4.7% |
| Overall exports | +11.2% |
Tissot PRX Powermatic 80, the kind of accessible Swiss automatic driving the low end.
A 54% jump in the 200 to 500 franc band tells you where the growth is: entry Swiss automatics, the Tissot and Certina tier, watches a first-time buyer picks up without financing anything. The 4.7% dip in the 500 to 3,000 band is the more worrying signal, because that is the mid-luxury heart of the business.
This lines up with what the secondary market has been saying all year. Our mid-year 2026 market report called it a market splitting in two, and the June export data is the same fault line showing up in new-watch shipments.
What it means for the pre-owned buyer
A strong export month is a headline about new watches leaving Switzerland. It is not a discount code for the pre-owned pieces sitting in a U.S. safe. Those are two different markets, and conflating them costs buyers money.
Steel sport Rolex did not get cheaper
Rolex raised retail prices again in 2026, by roughly 7% on average, with gold climbing more than steel. The Submariner 124060 went from $9,500 to $10,050, and the GMT-Master II moved from $11,300 to $12,000 (Everest, January 2026). Retail rising pulls the pre-owned floor up with it, not down.
The premiums are still there on the hardest-to-get references:
| Reference | 2026 retail | Typical pre-owned |
|---|---|---|
| Submariner 124060 | $10,050 | $11,500+ |
| GMT-Master II (Batman) | $12,000 | ~$20,000 |
| Daytona 126500LN | $16,900 | $30,000+ |
Rolex GMT-Master II 126710BLNR Batman, still trading well above list on the secondary market.
The openings are in the pieces that ran up fastest
If you want value right now, look where the froth is coming off, not where it is still boiling. The steel sports pieces that spiked hardest in 2021 and 2022 are where the give is.
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15500ST, part of the premium band that has been giving back gains.
The Patek Nautilus and AP Royal Oak both came off their peaks well before June, which is exactly why they are more negotiable now than a waitlisted Rolex sport model. Read May's WatchCharts pullback for how that unwind started.
Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711/1A, the reference that defined the steel-sport premium era.
One month is not a trend
June is one print. The first half of 2026 was still negative, and a single strong comparison against a weak 2025 base does not confirm a durable recovery. We do not tell buyers to time the market, and we do not think watches are an investment. The full 2026 data on why watches are not an investment holds even in a rising month. Buy the watch because you want to wear it, and buy it well.
Frequently asked questions
Did Swiss watch exports actually grow in 2026?
In June 2026 they grew 11.2% year over year to CHF 2.4 billion, the best month of the year. But the first half of 2026 as a whole was still down 0.7% to CHF 12.8 billion, so the annual picture is a mild contraction with a strong finish to the half.
Why did the United States lead the rebound?
U.S. Swiss watch imports rose 12.7% in June to CHF 349 million. American demand held up through the tariff uncertainty, and the U.S. remains one of the largest single markets for Swiss watches.
Does a strong export month mean pre-owned watches get cheaper?
No. Export data measures new watches shipped from Switzerland. Pre-owned prices track the secondary market, and with Rolex raising retail roughly 7% in 2026, the pre-owned floor on popular steel sport models moved up, not down.
Which watches are the best value in the current market?
The pieces that spiked hardest in 2021 and 2022 and have since given back gains, such as steel Patek Nautilus and AP Royal Oak references, are more negotiable than waitlisted Rolex sport models that still trade above retail.
Is now a good time to buy a luxury watch?
There is no perfect timing. The market is recovering but narrowly, and one month does not confirm a trend. Buy the watch you will wear, verify it is authenticated, and pay a fair market price rather than trying to call a bottom.
The bottom line
June was the best month Swiss watchmaking has had all year, and it still left the first half slightly negative. The recovery is real, led by the United States and the affordable end, while the mid-luxury band lags. For a pre-owned buyer, the takeaway is simple: a good export headline does not lower the price of the watch you want, so focus on condition, authentication, and a fair number.
Browse authenticated pre-owned Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet at 5dwatches.com.
Written by the 5D Watches desk. We buy, sell, and trade authenticated pre-owned watches every day, and we write these updates from what actually moves at the counter, with every price and figure sourced.